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Lisa111  
#1 Posted : Sunday, October 11, 2015 9:10:57 AM(UTC)
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So, does anyone have any insight into the new dirt surface at Keeneland. Any thoughts would be greatly appreciated. I know we only have since Oct 2nd to look at but if anyone has been tracking it, your thoughts on the subject would help. Also, any thoughts pertaining to comparable tracks that were previous sites for the Breeders Cup would be real important too. I do know that Wise Dan enjoyed that Dirt Surface in his 3 last workouts which is very telling. Although the track has produced several fatalities as well, which is also disturbing to say the least. Many will keep their horses away from there for training which does not help in the handicapping department.

"A blend of approximately 19,000 tons of sand, silt and clay native to Kentucky forms the main track’s six-inch racing surface. The surface composition consists of approximately 87.5 percent sand and 12.5 percent clay and silt." Does anyone know how this compares to Santa Anita?

Also, if anyone is interested in dosage info for a few of the races, let me know. The surface will play a big part and I dont want to post stuff randomly without that info. It is key. If interested let me know and I will post it. I wont be handicapping any of the Filly races, it will all be for the guys! Let me know if it is something you are interested in.

Edited by user Sunday, October 11, 2015 9:40:00 AM(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

"It's what you can't see that matters most." - "Sunny Jim" Fitzsimmons
kaitlinfree  
#2 Posted : Sunday, October 11, 2015 5:30:11 PM(UTC)
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i was on the surface last year, & i personally liked it & thought it was fine. i will be at Keeneland on Thursday & i'm anxious to feel it to see if it feels any different.
"it was like the Lord was holding the reigns that day. Secretariat was one of his creatures & maybe he whispered to him "go.""
Lisa111  
#3 Posted : Monday, October 12, 2015 7:49:33 AM(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: kaitlinfree Go to Quoted Post
i was on the surface last year, & i personally liked it & thought it was fine. i will be at Keeneland on Thursday & i'm anxious to feel it to see if it feels any different.


Thanks Kait, I appreciate the response.

Please keep your ears open and report back!

Edited by user Monday, October 12, 2015 9:24:55 AM(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

"It's what you can't see that matters most." - "Sunny Jim" Fitzsimmons
cocoa2  
#4 Posted : Tuesday, October 13, 2015 3:46:43 PM(UTC)
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Woodbine and Kentucky Downs shippers are always dangerous on the Keeneland turf. Runnerups from Saratoga usually complete their rally at Keeneland.

California shippers have a very low win rate (0% in Fall 2014)

Sprints are all the outside posts, 2 turns are all the inside posts.

The track is very kind to stalker/presser types.

Ken McPeek is ultra dangerous, even with horses coming off bad finishes.

Don't overlook Presque Isle shippers.

Edited by user Tuesday, October 13, 2015 3:48:48 PM(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

Lisa111  
#5 Posted : Tuesday, October 13, 2015 5:14:54 PM(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: cocoa2 Go to Quoted Post
Woodbine and Kentucky Downs shippers are always dangerous on the Keeneland turf. Runnerups from Saratoga usually complete their rally at Keeneland.

California shippers have a very low win rate (0% in Fall 2014)

Sprints are all the outside posts, 2 turns are all the inside posts.

The track is very kind to stalker/presser types.

Ken McPeek is ultra dangerous, even with horses coming off bad finishes.

Don't overlook Presque Isle shippers.


Thank you. Appreciate that very much. Was wondering more about the new surface and how it has been for this meet since Oct 2nd. Do you know if it is comparable to Santa anita's new surface before the Breeders races. I do remeber you telling me about last years Santa Anita surface being similar to what Toast of New York trained on and that info was great. I am really interested in how this surface compares to say Santa Anita/ Churchill / other race tracks that were sites of Breeders Cup races. Anything you can tell me would be greatly appreciated. I think this surface is key to handicapping these races where most have never ran on - nor by the looks of it - going to train on. Wise Dan really liked that surface very much during his workouts, which would bode well for stamina horses. But we cant go by just one horse, especially one that is hard to compare to others. In just looking at that, Brody's Cause would probably love the surface, but again, I really think understanding how it compares with regards to other tracks would be a huge help. Thanks in advance.
"It's what you can't see that matters most." - "Sunny Jim" Fitzsimmons
cocoa2  
#6 Posted : Tuesday, October 13, 2015 9:30:46 PM(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: Lisa111 Go to Quoted Post
Thank you. Appreciate that very much. Was wondering more about the new surface and how it has been for this meet since Oct 2nd. Do you know if it is comparable to Santa anita's new surface before the Breeders races. I do remeber you telling me about last years Santa Anita surface being similar to what Toast of New York trained on and that info was great. I am really interested in how this surface compares to say Santa Anita/ Churchill / other race tracks that were sites of Breeders Cup races. Anything you can tell me would be greatly appreciated. I think this surface is key to handicapping these races where most have never ran on - nor by the looks of it - going to train on. Wise Dan really liked that surface very much during his workouts, which would bode well for stamina horses. But we cant go by just one horse, especially one that is hard to compare to others. In just looking at that, Brody's Cause would probably love the surface, but again, I really think understanding how it compares with regards to other tracks would be a huge help. Thanks in advance.


My guess would be it is most similar to Oaklawn. Santa Anita is a very sandy, hard, and light track. Churchill tends to be hard and light but what with the weather and track management, it seems like it changes every time they drag it.
Lisa111  
#7 Posted : Tuesday, October 13, 2015 10:10:28 PM(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: cocoa2 Go to Quoted Post
My guess would be it is most similar to Oaklawn. Santa Anita is a very sandy, hard, and light track. Churchill tends to be hard and light but what with the weather and track management, it seems like it changes every time they drag it.


Yes. I do believe the best route would be to refrain betting Fridays races, or at the very least, refrain from the first 5 or 6 races on Friday and track those that won and those that lost against their "normal" running styles to be more prepared for Saturdays races. The hard part here is that no one is really shipping horses there to train. They are holding off and staying put until the last possible moment due to the loss of those ill-fated horses. I was hoping that Honor Code and Brodys Cause would have at least put in one workout there just to see if there was even a one second difference in their times. It is hard to handicap when there is a new surface. You just have no idea who will get the advantage from it. It becomes much much more than whether or not it is speed favoring, it has everything to do with how the individual running style of the horse will take to something totally new like this. Since it is "new" for all, there is no way to gauge it other than tracking it the day before.
"It's what you can't see that matters most." - "Sunny Jim" Fitzsimmons
kaitlinfree  
#8 Posted : Wednesday, October 14, 2015 12:36:16 AM(UTC)
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Churchill downs does have a more hard dirt surface that i can attest to as well.
"it was like the Lord was holding the reigns that day. Secretariat was one of his creatures & maybe he whispered to him "go.""
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