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Lisa111  
#1 Posted : Friday, October 13, 2017 2:05:42 PM(UTC)
Lisa111

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So, the race is just around the corner. I will be doing a write up on the numbers hopefully by the end of the weekend and will post here.

Just looking at the field, this is a serious group of horses. Absolutely stacked with talent.

Arrogate is a monster, West Coast is so talented, Collected is just a beast at DelMar, Mubtaahij breaking out, Gunnevera on the uptick, etc...

I have not begun to work out a thing yet, but I do know one thing,
I will have one "sentimental" superfecta ticket going. I will single the Monster Gun Runner on top of this ticket.
The idea of Shared Belief's half brother beating FOUR of Bafferts starters in this race is just too good to pass up. BigGrin
Just one little super ticket on the side for good luck!

Anyway, I have a very strong feeling in the pit of my stomach that Arrogate is going to put on a serious show. Back in form and ready to roll.

This is one of the best group of talented horses assembled in a very long time, each one deserving and each one spectacular.
Just wish it was being run at a different track. Very tough surface to figure out.

Looking forward to hearing your thoughts on the race. Especially as it pertains to bias. But I guess we won't know that for sure until the Friday night before.
That's what kills me the most about this track. Its so up in the air.

"It's what you can't see that matters most." - "Sunny Jim" Fitzsimmons
thanks 2 users thanked Lisa111 for this useful post.
BigDawg on 10/13/2017(UTC), Buckpasser on 10/18/2017(UTC)
BigDawg  
#2 Posted : Friday, October 13, 2017 2:41:43 PM(UTC)
BigDawg

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Thanks Lisa! I've started some homework, but I agree, I cant get a feel for the track. I'd welcome any insight folks have.

One thing you know... these races always get a pace... So factor that in when considering closers.
thanks 1 user thanked BigDawg for this useful post.
Lisa111 on 10/13/2017(UTC)
Lisa111  
#3 Posted : Wednesday, October 18, 2017 7:22:57 AM(UTC)
Lisa111

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I apologize for not posting the numbers yet. I'm still working on them for the four important dirt races. Its been a little crazy for the past week or so and I hope to have something put together for all races by the end of the weekend. I will post the full sheets to you for each race.

I really don't know how to work out the advantages for these 4 races yet until I see how that track is gonna work out. I have a huge feeling that it will speed up throughout the course of each day. I can't help but remember the list of winners from that week in the meet where the speed horses had no shot at winning. It changes the dynamics of each of these races if the track is the same. The standouts of course will be those horses who are proven on the track already and found success. It will be very difficult to back any of them who have never tackled that surface yet.

Out of the 4 races, the toughest will be the sprint race. High indexed horses of course win sprints. No matter what track. This is certainly a common sense type outcome but at DelMar, the speed was not holding on during the meet, no matter the distance. I do not know if the track will remain the same over Breeders Weekend and I will only be able to figure that out before the actual races start. This year will be very up in the air until the last minute.

I think the only thing we can do that makes sense is to break the fields down to likely winners based on a speed track and a tiring track. Have both tickets ready to go and then make the final pick the latest as we can.

I have already begun working on the list of winners from the entire DelMar meet with the new surface. I want to see if it changed at all over that time and also if it happened to change over the course of the day. Guys like Bolt D'Oro who have high points total and 3.00 index and under are the type that have the advantage at that track and showed that advantage already. Guys like Collected who have extremely high indexes and who won on that track are monsters for running through that bias. They were few and far between.

So, it shows the most talented can run right through it, but it is figuring out the ones who never ran on it and how they will react to it that will separate really good handicapping skills to those who only consider names of horses and past performances on different tracks. This Breeders Cup weekend will be one of the toughest tests of handicapping in a long time. Looking at Class, Breeding and Speed/Stamina for distance is important of course, and when one ingredient is missing, it throws the whole thing off.

We need to get more info on that track. This is the number one thing. If we do not get that info, we will of course pick the best horses on the field, but that does not mean that these best horses will compete to their normal running capabilities on this track.
"It's what you can't see that matters most." - "Sunny Jim" Fitzsimmons
thanks 1 user thanked Lisa111 for this useful post.
Buckpasser on 10/18/2017(UTC)
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