logo

Welcome Guest! To enable all features please Login or Register.

Notification

Icon
Error

Options
Go to last post Go to first unread
Lisa111  
#1 Posted : Sunday, October 29, 2017 8:26:27 PM(UTC)
Lisa111

Rank: Advanced Member

Groups: Moderator
Joined: 7/14/2014(UTC)
Posts: 557

Thanks: 278 times
Was thanked: 433 time(s) in 235 post(s)
The Dirt Mile

One of the most important things to know about any Breeders Cup Dirt Mile race, Speed is not at an advantage, no matter what track is hosting.
You would think that at only 8f, a high inheritance of speed would in fact give the horse an advantage. It is not so.
Over the last 10 years, only one speed type inheritance guy was able to win the Dirt Mile.
It happened at Keeneland in 2015 and that would be the extent of it. The most advantaged are under 3.00, the bulk in the 2.00’s and many in the 1.00’s.

Point here is that in spite of all of that inherited speed, they just don’t hit that wire first, regardless of their favorable odds.
I have listed the top 4 finishers of the past editions of the Breeders Dirt Mile. Take note of each winner and their Chefs index.
Also take note of the speed that grabs a piece.
Regardless of where they run, regardless of bias, the speed does not have an easy time hitting that wire first.
Many times they grab a piece but do not get the job done.

2016 – Santa Anita
Tamarkuz – 2.11
Gun Runner – 1.25
Accelerate – 3.31
Dortmund – 2.38

2015 – Keeneland
Liams Map – 3.40
Lea - .94
Red Vine – 1.67
Wicked Strong – 2.27

2014 – Santa Anita
Goldencents – 1.67
Tapiture – 3.00
Pants on Fire – 3.00
Bronzo – 3.00

2013 – Santa Anita
Goldencents – 1.67
Golden Ticket – 3.40
Brujo deOlleros – 3.50
Verrazano – 2.06

2012 – Santa Anita
Tapizar – 3.00
Rail Trip – 5.18
Delegation – 3.00
John Scott – 5.00

2011 – Churchill
Calebs Posse – 2.00
Shackleford – 3.62
Tres Borrachos – 1.75
Trappe Shot – 3.00

2010 – Churchill
Dakota Phone – 1.80
Morning Line – 2.38
Gayego – 6.00
Cool Coal Man – 3.00

2009 – Oak Tree at Santa Anita
Furthest Land – 2.82
Readys Echo – 1.50
Midshipman – 2.37
Mastercraftsman – 1.82

2008 – Oak Tree at Santa Anita
Albertus Maximus – 1.67
Rebellion – 2.27
Two Step Salsa – 2.64
My Pal Charlie – 2.60

2007 – Monmouth Park
Corinthian – 2.56
Gotcha Gold – 2.38
Discreet Cat – 2.67
Wanderin Boy – 2.48

PROBABLE CONTENDERS:

SPEED:

4.33 MIDNIGHT STORM DP = 2-3-3-0-0 (8) DI = 4.33 CD = 0.88
Mare Profile = 6-3-5-7-5 Speed = 9 Stamina = 12 Index = 0.91 Triads = 14-15-17
Cross Entered.

4.33 LANCASTER BOMBER DP = 2-13-9-0-0 (24) DI = 4.33 CD = 0.71
Mare Profile = 2-3-8-7-3 Speed = 5 Stamina = 10 Index = 0.71 Triads = 13-18-18
Cross Entered.

3.31 ACCELERATE DP = 5-10-13-0-0 (28) DI = 3.31CD=0.71
Mare Profile = 7-4-1-11-7 Speed = 11 Stamina = 18 Index = 0.73 Triads = 12-16-19

THE 3.00 GUYS:

3.00 PRACTICAL JOKE DP = 1-1-2-0-0 (4) DI = 3.00 CD = 0.75
Mare Profile = 5-8-6-8-4 Speed = 13 Stamina = 12 Index = 1.09 Triads = 19-22-18
Cross Entered.

3.00 IRON FIST DP = 7-9-13-1-0 (30) DI = 3.00 CD = 0.73
Mare Profile = 10-5-1-9-7 Speed = 15 Stamina = 16 Index = 1.08 Triads = 16-15-17

3.00 CUPID DP = 5-12-14-1-0 (32) DI = 3.00 CD = 0.66
Mare Profile = 7-6-1-7-8 Speed = 13 Stamina = 15 Index = 0.88 Triads = 14-14-16
Cross Entered.

3.00 IMPERATIVE DP = 2-6-8-0-0 (16) DI = 3.00 CD = 0.63
Mare Profile = 2-6-4-5-8 Speed = 8 Stamina = 13 Index = 0.56 Triads = 12-15-17

UNDER 3.00:

2.83 BATTLE OF MIDWAY DP = 10-14-17-2-1 (44) DI = 2.83 CD = 0.68
Mare Profile = 8-2-2-11-5 Speed = 10 Stamina = 16 Index = 0.87 Triads = 12-15-18

2.80 AWESOME SLEW DP = 10-8-20-0-0 (38) DI = 2.80 CD = 0.74
Mare Profile = 6-5-3-7-10 Speed = 11 Stamina = 17 Index = 0.67 Triads = 14-15-20

2.50 SHARP AZTECA DP = 4-2-8-0-0 (14) DI = 2.50 CD = 0.71
Mare Profile = 3-8-2-12-5 Speed = 11 Stamina = 17 Index = 0.67 Triads = 13-22-19

2.08 GIANT EXPECTATIONS DP = 4-3-13-0-0 (20) DI = 2.08 CD = 0.55
Mare Profile = 12-5-3-3-10 Speed = 17 Stamina = 13 Index = 1.23 Triads = 20-11-16

1.77 GATO DEL SOL DP = 6-3-5-2-2 (18) DI = 1.77 CD = 0.50
Mare Profile = 5-3-5-10-6 Speed = 8 Stamina = 16 Index = 0.67 Triads = 13-18-21
Not in yet.

1.57 MOR SPIRIT DP = 4-0-14-0-0 (18) DI = 1.57 CD = 0.44
Mare Profile = 9-6-2-9-7 Speed = 15 Stamina = 16 Index = 1.04 Triads = 17-17-18

Edited by user Sunday, October 29, 2017 8:29:12 PM(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

"It's what you can't see that matters most." - "Sunny Jim" Fitzsimmons
thanks 3 users thanked Lisa111 for this useful post.
BigDawg on 10/29/2017(UTC), Sysonby on 10/30/2017(UTC), mcb05003 on 10/30/2017(UTC)
Lisa111  
#2 Posted : Monday, October 30, 2017 8:05:32 AM(UTC)
Lisa111

Rank: Advanced Member

Groups: Moderator
Joined: 7/14/2014(UTC)
Posts: 557

Thanks: 278 times
Was thanked: 433 time(s) in 235 post(s)
Leaning toward Sharp Azteca and Mor Spirit as the top 2 with Cupid/Accelerate/Giant Expectations underneath.

Any thoughts on this race?
"It's what you can't see that matters most." - "Sunny Jim" Fitzsimmons
BigDawg  
#3 Posted : Monday, October 30, 2017 2:02:38 PM(UTC)
BigDawg

Rank: Advanced Member

Groups: Registered
Joined: 10/22/2014(UTC)
Posts: 38

Thanks: 40 times
Was thanked: 19 time(s) in 12 post(s)
My top 5 choices for this race are in no order: Mor Spirit, Sharp Azteca, Practical Joke, Accelerate, Cupid.

I hate that Mor Spirit has not raced in 5 months!
mcb05003  
#4 Posted : Monday, October 30, 2017 3:23:37 PM(UTC)
mcb05003

Rank: Newbie

Groups: Registered
Joined: 6/8/2017(UTC)
Posts: 7

Thanks: 7 times
Was thanked: 4 time(s) in 4 post(s)
I really like both of those choices, I’m thinking something like this:

1st - Sharp Azteca/ Mor Spirit/ Battle of Midway
2nd - Sharp Azteca/ Mor Spirit/ Battle of Midway
3rd - Accelerate/ Cupid/ Practical Joke/ Giant Expectations
4th - Accelerate/ Cupid/ Giant Expectations/ Awesome Slew

I’m also not liking the long lay off for Mor Spirt. Also note Accelerate has not raced since Mid August.
thanks 1 user thanked mcb05003 for this useful post.
Lisa111 on 10/30/2017(UTC)
Lisa111  
#5 Posted : Monday, October 30, 2017 8:57:15 PM(UTC)
Lisa111

Rank: Advanced Member

Groups: Moderator
Joined: 7/14/2014(UTC)
Posts: 557

Thanks: 278 times
Was thanked: 433 time(s) in 235 post(s)
Originally Posted by: mcb05003 Go to Quoted Post
I really like both of those choices, I’m thinking something like this:

1st - Sharp Azteca/ Mor Spirit/ Battle of Midway
2nd - Sharp Azteca/ Mor Spirit/ Battle of Midway
3rd - Accelerate/ Cupid/ Practical Joke/ Giant Expectations
4th - Accelerate/ Cupid/ Giant Expectations/ Awesome Slew

I’m also not liking the long lay off for Mor Spirt. Also note Accelerate has not raced since Mid August.


Looks like we all agree with Sharp Azteca and Mor Spirit.
I also like Battle of Midway but will like him much more if it rains!
"It's what you can't see that matters most." - "Sunny Jim" Fitzsimmons
Users browsing this topic
Guest (2)
Forum Jump  
You cannot post new topics in this forum.
You cannot reply to topics in this forum.
You cannot delete your posts in this forum.
You cannot edit your posts in this forum.
You cannot create polls in this forum.
You cannot vote in polls in this forum.