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AnnaK  
#21 Posted : Friday, November 03, 2017 1:25:48 PM(UTC)
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Best of Luck with everything SS, hoping for you. And I'm only going round & round with the Classic. Can't help but think Baffert thrives on this kind of challenge & will manage it again, with Arrogate. I'd love to see Gunrunner win too, so I'm more than fine with that. Can't see Gunnevera managing it unfortunately, very hard I think to swing past this group, same with Mubtaahij. These are really hard races to choose this year & just haven't had the time to dig it. As much as I like Unbridled Forever, a bit ticked that Joel got left off, even if it is for Johnny. Favourites are Stellar Wind and Paradise Woods. Really liked Imperial Hint on the track at XB, then saw the write up about him in Paulick, so he's my sneaky favourite for the Sprint, hopefully at least in the money. Good luck today everyone, enjoy!! More mulling tonight for tomorrow.
AnnaK  
#22 Posted : Sunday, November 05, 2017 3:12:45 PM(UTC)
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Oh in the end it was so simple, that horseshoe caught in the tail was the clearest prediction.
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Lisa111 on 11/7/2017(UTC)
Sysonby  
#23 Posted : Sunday, November 05, 2017 6:02:36 PM(UTC)
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I thought the best prediction was that the track would play a decisive role in a lot of these races.
cocoa2  
#24 Posted : Sunday, November 05, 2017 6:55:27 PM(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: Sysonby Go to Quoted Post
I thought the best prediction was that the track would play a decisive role in a lot of these races.


That was a very fair race track...
Sysonby  
#25 Posted : Monday, November 06, 2017 11:35:30 AM(UTC)
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Lisa has been saying for awhile that it was a track some horses were having a real challenge with. She had indicated which horses might have more challenges with the track on races a number of weeks ago and was generally accurate in her predictions. So it wasn't a matter of how the racetrack was playing, speed vs stamina, but challenges it was giving to some horses who just couldn't seem to get a hold of it.

Of note in that regard, I think, is the fact that the worst races of Arrogate's career all came in the last months on that track. It's possible that his abilities have declined, but it's also possible that he was one of those horses that had a particularly difficult time with the track itself. Mike Smith indicated that Arrogate couldn't seem to get a hold of the track.

Edited by user Monday, November 06, 2017 11:37:48 AM(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

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Lisa111 on 11/7/2017(UTC)
Lisa111  
#26 Posted : Tuesday, November 07, 2017 7:53:51 AM(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: Sysonby Go to Quoted Post
Lisa has been saying for awhile that it was a track some horses were having a real challenge with. She had indicated which horses might have more challenges with the track on races a number of weeks ago and was generally accurate in her predictions. So it wasn't a matter of how the racetrack was playing, speed vs stamina, but challenges it was giving to some horses who just couldn't seem to get a hold of it.

Of note in that regard, I think, is the fact that the worst races of Arrogate's career all came in the last months on that track. It's possible that his abilities have declined, but it's also possible that he was one of those horses that had a particularly difficult time with the track itself. Mike Smith indicated that Arrogate couldn't seem to get a hold of the track.


The track definitely changed from Thursday and Fridays races to Saturdays races.
Thursday and Friday was speedier and Saturday it went completely opposite.
Maybe due to a very high tide in the morning of 7ft to a very late low tide occurring after 4:30. Could be. Just guessing.
The fact that Bolt D'Oro had a hard time on it this time around showed that it was at its most tiring peak for some speed types.
Both wins from Bolt at Del Mar had much low high tides and low tide occurred much earlier. Could be a reason why the speedy Bolt could not not
make it happen. It didn't help his cause either that his Mare triads are completely off, resulting in even less stamina to go along with that speed.
The track had its negative affect on him very much and was even more enhanced by the fact that he did so well before.

The top two finishers in the Juvenile have Belmont stamina from the Mares. Overwhelming stamina that on a normal fair track would have
been crying for more track to run on. At DelMar on Saturday, their 12f Belmont Stamina was the greatest gift they both could have been given.
That track was as deep and tiring as you could ever see.

But, even with the hard track on Saturday, it remained consistent throughout the 2 days in so far as speed vs stamina
competing for those top 2 spots. And the Dirt Mile also stayed consistent with the under 3.00 horses hitting the top spots.
If the Dirt Mile was held on Saturday instead of Friday, I would say that it would have definitely been the same, however
the finishers would have been on the lower end of the scale under 3.00 and not on the higher end under 3.00.

Gun Runner did so well and with his stamina inheritance and position on the track turned to his advantage.
Collected, on the other hand, was a complete monster on that track. The only horses all day who was able to
compete on that track with such a high inheritance of speed that he again defied logic. Even much more so for
what he accomplished on Saturday evening. He was so impressive.

I agree Sysonby. For Arrogate, so many excuses could be offered up but
I can't help but think that the Champion horse may have had a much different ending to his career had the Classic been held at Santa Anita this year.

Buck, do you think there was anything to that Full Moon and 7ft high tide on Saturday or is this just my imagination?


I thought that Breeders Weekend at Keeneland was tough, but I hope that Breeders Weekend at DelMar never ever happens again!
Seriously! War Story beating out Gunnevera, Arrogate, Mubtaahij and Churchill??!! Seriously!!!!!!

Edited by user Tuesday, November 07, 2017 10:45:58 AM(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

"It's what you can't see that matters most." - "Sunny Jim" Fitzsimmons
Sysonby  
#27 Posted : Tuesday, November 07, 2017 3:23:46 PM(UTC)
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Lisa: I agree Sysonby. For Arrogate, so many excuses could be offered up but
I can't help but think that the Champion horse may have had a much different ending to his career had the Classic been held at Santa Anita this year.

That's exactly what I was thinking, Lisa. If so, it's unfortunate that the final races of his career were blemished in this way.
Lisa111  
#28 Posted : Tuesday, November 07, 2017 5:22:51 PM(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: Sysonby Go to Quoted Post
Lisa: I agree Sysonby. For Arrogate, so many excuses could be offered up but
I can't help but think that the Champion horse may have had a much different ending to his career had the Classic been held at Santa Anita this year.

That's exactly what I was thinking, Lisa. If so, it's unfortunate that the final races of his career were blemished in this way.


So, what do you think? Do you think Baffert might hold off on that retirement and send the Champ to South Florida for the Pegasus?
I would assume Arrogate would just love that track to stretch out on and he could redeem some of those breeding fees.
It's a nice thought!
"It's what you can't see that matters most." - "Sunny Jim" Fitzsimmons
SSilence86  
#29 Posted : Tuesday, November 07, 2017 9:04:45 PM(UTC)
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I don't know. The interview with Smith & even Baffert pre race was very telling.
I'm not sure it was just the track.
If he were to contest and win the Pegasus, it would vindicate him.
On the other hand, if he lost it would call a lot into question.
The risk isn't worth the possible reward- because breeders are still going to use him.
I think he retires.

Edited by user Tuesday, November 07, 2017 9:07:02 PM(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

Buckpasser  
#30 Posted : Wednesday, November 08, 2017 8:34:42 PM(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: Lisa111 Go to Quoted Post
The track definitely changed from Thursday and Fridays races to Saturdays races.
Thursday and Friday was speedier and Saturday it went completely opposite.
Maybe due to a very high tide in the morning of 7ft to a very late low tide occurring after 4:30. Could be. Just guessing.
The fact that Bolt D'Oro had a hard time on it this time around showed that it was at its most tiring peak for some speed types.
Both wins from Bolt at Del Mar had much low high tides and low tide occurred much earlier. Could be a reason why the speedy Bolt could not not
make it happen. It didn't help his cause either that his Mare triads are completely off, resulting in even less stamina to go along with that speed.
The track had its negative affect on him very much and was even more enhanced by the fact that he did so well before.

The top two finishers in the Juvenile have Belmont stamina from the Mares. Overwhelming stamina that on a normal fair track would have
been crying for more track to run on. At DelMar on Saturday, their 12f Belmont Stamina was the greatest gift they both could have been given.
That track was as deep and tiring as you could ever see.

But, even with the hard track on Saturday, it remained consistent throughout the 2 days in so far as speed vs stamina
competing for those top 2 spots. And the Dirt Mile also stayed consistent with the under 3.00 horses hitting the top spots.
If the Dirt Mile was held on Saturday instead of Friday, I would say that it would have definitely been the same, however
the finishers would have been on the lower end of the scale under 3.00 and not on the higher end under 3.00.

Gun Runner did so well and with his stamina inheritance and position on the track turned to his advantage.
Collected, on the other hand, was a complete monster on that track. The only horses all day who was able to
compete on that track with such a high inheritance of speed that he again defied logic. Even much more so for
what he accomplished on Saturday evening. He was so impressive.

I agree Sysonby. For Arrogate, so many excuses could be offered up but
I can't help but think that the Champion horse may have had a much different ending to his career had the Classic been held at Santa Anita this year.

Buck, do you think there was anything to that Full Moon and 7ft high tide on Saturday or is this just my imagination?


I thought that Breeders Weekend at Keeneland was tough, but I hope that Breeders Weekend at DelMar never ever happens again!
Seriously! War Story beating out Gunnevera, Arrogate, Mubtaahij and Churchill??!! Seriously!!!!!!


I really think there was. I didn’t use Arrogate in any bet.
Lisa111  
#31 Posted : Thursday, November 09, 2017 12:18:44 PM(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: Buckpasser Go to Quoted Post
I really think there was. I didn’t use Arrogate in any bet.




That was brave! I took him out of the top spot and went back to Gun Runner -
But I left Arrogate in all spots underneath.
Didn't matter anyway - I didn't use War Story at all.

"It's what you can't see that matters most." - "Sunny Jim" Fitzsimmons
Buckpasser  
#32 Posted : Thursday, November 09, 2017 1:34:38 PM(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: Lisa111 Go to Quoted Post
That was brave! I took him out of the top spot and went back to Gun Runner -
But I left Arrogate in all spots underneath.
Didn't matter anyway - I didn't use War Story at all.



I just didn’t think he would make it. With the track that he didn’t care for, GR coming in in top form, the fact they were doing very strong drug testing for the BC, and that Baffert was cold for both days.

I didn’t use War Story. I took WTS for the long shot
Lisa111  
#33 Posted : Monday, November 13, 2017 1:29:32 PM(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: Buckpasser Go to Quoted Post
I just didn’t think he would make it. With the track that he didn’t care for, GR coming in in top form, the fact they were doing very strong drug testing for the BC, and that Baffert was cold for both days.

I didn’t use War Story. I took WTS for the long shot


Buck, I can't help but think that Gun Runner will have a real competitor in Collected at the Pegasus.
Like you said, They were doing very strong drug testing for the BC, will not be the case for Gulfstream.
Collected was a monster at DelMar, even much more suited for Gulfstream track.
Same goes for West Coast.
"It's what you can't see that matters most." - "Sunny Jim" Fitzsimmons
Buckpasser  
#34 Posted : Thursday, November 16, 2017 5:52:31 PM(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: Lisa111 Go to Quoted Post
Buck, I can't help but think that Gun Runner will have a real competitor in Collected at the Pegasus.
Like you said, They were doing very strong drug testing for the BC, will not be the case for Gulfstream.
Collected was a monster at DelMar, even much more suited for Gulfstream track.
Same goes for West Coast.


Yes I’m really high on Collected. I think he’s the real deal drugs or no drugs. I’ve forgotten do they decide HOY before the Pegasus?

Edited by user Thursday, November 16, 2017 5:53:06 PM(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

Lisa111  
#35 Posted : Friday, November 17, 2017 7:57:31 AM(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: Buckpasser Go to Quoted Post
Yes I’m really high on Collected. I think he’s the real deal drugs or no drugs. I’ve forgotten do they decide HOY before the Pegasus?


I think that the awards are January 25th.

Pegusus is run January 27th.

HOTY belonged to Arrogate the first half of 2017, then Gun Runner took over the second half.
I wonder how they will go.

"It's what you can't see that matters most." - "Sunny Jim" Fitzsimmons
Buckpasser  
#36 Posted : Friday, November 17, 2017 10:24:59 AM(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: Lisa111 Go to Quoted Post
I think that the awards are January 25th.

Pegusus is run January 27th.

HOTY belonged to Arrogate the first half of 2017, then Gun Runner took over the second half.
I wonder how they will go.



Then I think it’s Gun Runner’s award. Arrogate threw in too many clunkers and got walloped in his meeting with Gun Runner
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