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Lisa111  
#1 Posted : Saturday, October 21, 2017 1:00:53 PM(UTC)
Lisa111

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BREEDERS CUP CLASSIC 2017

Back to the basics with this race. Keeping it simple and following the rules. Disregarding bias at this early stage and concentrating on what is norm.
High speed vs High Stamina at 10f. Head to head on a Fast Track vs head to head on a tiring track.
As is the case with most all graded stakes races over 9f, my gut is telling me the same four will be competing down the lane either way.
The bias will dictate who prevails.

Most all times, we know the bias beforehand and 95% of the time it is a fast track, regardless of where the race is being held.
The most recent break from that was in 2007 at Monmouth, where it was a sloppy track.
We could only wish that was the kink this year.
By all accounts, DelMar was not a fast track during the past meet. Just the opposite.

The difference though would be the caliber of this field assembled for a distance that they are geared for.
It would make sense that to make it to the biggest race of the year at the Classic distance, they could probably run on rocks and still compete.
In this regard, you can make a valid argument that speed vs stamina will still be the rule.
It is comical to think that any track would be listed as “Sunny and Tiring”
but even if it was, the speed will still run, the stamina will still be coming late and one or the other will prevail.

I do not think it is a coincidence that the hot-shot favorites of this race fall in those two categories.
They will always have the advantage at this distance and the middle guys will always be at a disadvantage.

Add to that any overloaded profile that falls anywhere within the field and they would also have an advantage as well.

In my humble opinion, two weeks before the gates open at DelMar, this would be the best way to tackle the race.
On Friday, November 3rd, the bias will rear its ugly head and may in fact change everything as stated here.
But I do not believe that will be the case with this race. I believe that the 3 rules will apply no matter what.
The best of the Speed Group competing against the best of the Stamina Group and possibly a very high overloaded profile will be the Top 4 in the Superfecta.

Great Luck Everyone!


CHEF SPEED:

The five listed here, on a normal fast track, have the highest advantage on the field.
Some, not all, represent the best of the best of the field.
Out of the 5, most likely only 2, (possibly 3 for other reasons) of these guys will hit the board.
Just looking at the names, I am sure the same 2 pop out for everyone reading this, however,
there is one who has a real shot at the board this year who otherwise might be easily tossed.

5.29 COLLECTED
(USA) ch. C, 2013 {22-d} DP = 10-5-7-0-0 (22) DI = 5.29 CD = 1.14
Mare Profile = 5-9-2-11-3 Speed = 14 Stamina = 14 Index = 1.11 Triads = 16-22-16

Breeding alone, I would have given this guy a 10% chance of hitting the board in the Classic. Especially at DelMar.
He has the highest speed inheritance of the entire group.
His stamina from the mares is not what I would call overwhelming for 10f.
But the "Baffert Clone" defies logic as presented in the Pacific Classic run on the “tiring” DelMar surface.
Same story, different race.
He must remain as a threat for the time being, and this based on his trainer more so than what is realistic based on his breeding.
To cross him out has no logic, just as his performance defied logic as well.

4.33 MIDNIGHT STORM
(USA) dkb/br. C, 2011 {19-c} DP = 2-3-3-0-0 (8) DI = 4.33 CD = 0.88
Mare Profile = 6-3-5-7-5 Speed = 9 Stamina = 12 Index = 0.91 Triads = 14-15-17

I think most would agree that this would be the high speed profile that is an easy toss.
They may have considered running him on the DelMar dirt as opposed to the DelMar Turf last out.
I have a strong suspicion that he will not be a contender here after all is said and done.
If he is, his breeding for the race is not lucky.

3.73 WEST COAST (USA) b. C, 2014 {9-f} DP = 10-5-11-0-0 (26) DI = 3.73 CD = 0.96
Mare Profile = 8-4-1-6-9 Speed = 12 Stamina = 15 Index = 0.84 Triads = 13-11-16

His high yet not so high index is almost perfect for this race.
What stands out with this guy is that he has won his last 5 on 5 different tracks, his first 3 off the pace and further back and recently his last two on the lead.
This is shown also in both of his chef and mare profile configurations as well.
High inheritance in his chefs with a 10 in sprinters (fast to lead) and very high 11 in Classic (a lot to sit back and pounce).
And in the Mares profile, the speed side (8+4) and the high stamina side (6+9) gives him that balance that is so important for 10f.
His triads are lacking, but triads for this race are not as telling as they are in some other races.
The Profile configuration is more important. The triads should be consulted but not taken as an end all for The Classic.
By all accounts, this profile outshines his stablemate’s above for this race.
The DelMar surface is up in the air here, however, he didn’t mind any of the surfaces he has run on yet.
His numbers are great, his performances are great and I do not think the surface will be a factor for him.
He’s got an awful lot of things going perfectly for him here.
So much so that not only is he a contender to hit the board, he may in fact be the second best configuration of the entire group.

3.36 ARROGATE (USA) gr/r. C, 2013 {16-g} DP = 6-9-7-0-2 (24) DI = 3.36 CD = 0.71
Mare Profile = 4-6-4-7-9 Speed = 10 Stamina = 16 Index = 0.62 Triads = 14-17-20

Seems fitting that he would be smack dab in the middle of absolute perfection for this race.
Of course, this makes his past performances no surprise.
Between him and West Coast, who share this speed category, look at the difference with the CD.
Both have the perfect speed for this race, high yet not so high.
But because of the configurations, Arrogate gained serious stamina as well.
He has a .71 CD as opposed to West Coast’s .96. They compete on the speed level, but Arrogate goes way beyond with stamina.
Also, even though triads are not as specific with the Classic, his remain top notch and perfect for 10f.
I do think that Arrogate hated that track and basically refused to run on it.
Yes, he had won on it prior, but he was facing only 2 opponents and he could have easily slept through that race and still won.
When he came back to it after Meydan, DelMar track was probably the last place he wanted to be.
He comes back to try again in the Pacific Classic and was looking like his old self near the wire.
Third time back, I believe he takes no prisoners.
The surface affected this monster and nothing else.
He is that well bred and that good to go out a Champion.
I believe Baffert will have this one prepared for the surface for his final race.
He certainly has the breeding for the Breeders Cup Classic.
It is all about that track. Breeding-wise he is the Top Contender.

3.20 WIN THE SPACE (USA) gr/r. C, 2012 {20} DP = 9-13-20-0-0 (42) DI = 3.20 CD = 0.74
Mare Profile = 8-4-4-4-13 Speed = 12 Stamina = 17 Index = 0.71 Triads = 16-12-21

And here he is, the most loaded boy on the field. 42 points.
High yet not so high speed. Balanced stamina from his mares.
Bad luck last year. This year, a live longshot (for the board) if ever there was one.
I'm using him underneath. It never ceases to amaze me how often that overloaded profile steals a piece.
And most times the odds are spectacular. Worth the extra money to use as a great potential Longshot.

3.00 CUPID (USA) gr/r. C, 2013 {17-b} DP = 5-12-14-1-0 (32) DI = 3.00 CD = 0.66
Mare Profile = 7-6-1-7-8 Speed = 13 Stamina = 15 Index = 0.88 Triads = 14-14-16

Second highest Points total now under Win The Space and above Gunnevera.
Beautiful Chefs profile. Lower than normal CD from the chefs.
No match for Mubtaahij on a fast track where the opposite should have been.
Even worse position going further at DelMar against Mub.
This 5th entry from Baffert is a bit overkill and certainly causes one to think of the real use.
He is a good horse, but the use of him in this race may have other meanings.


CHEF AVERAGE:

I fall short on getting involved with the breeding aspects with this group as it pertains to DelMar track.
(Or any other track for that matter)

There are 4 possible starters who fall in that “Average” inheritance.

As is the norm, once in a great while one will burst out and grab a piece or as was the case in 2013,
at Santa Anita with Mucho Macho Man and Declaration of War, or in 2009 with Zenyatta and Gio Ponti,
a strange set of circumstances will change everything and both the speed and the stamina will falter.
Its rare but could happen due to the strange circumstances of the track. These 4 guys fall into that category.
They need something strange to prevail here. Really strange. Outlandishly strange.

Personally, I’m not going anywhere near it, but if I had no other choice but to take a shot, I guess it would be Keen Ice.
Realistically though, I am keeping my distance from this category this year. If Keen Ice hits it, well I lose.

All of the speed would have to falter and the 3 stamina guys would be need to be sleeping in the gate for this group to take a stand.
I will leave the numbers here but I can not go into any sort of analysis with any of them as far as breeding.
The only thing I will say with this group is that one of them historically has a shot and who that one is relies heavily on past performances – not breeding.

2.73 KEEN ICE (USA) b. C, 2012 {13-d} DP = 5-8-15-0-0 (28) DI = 2.73 CD = 0.64
Mare Profile = 3-3-4-10-7 Speed = 6 Stamina = 17 Index = 0.46 Triads = 10-17-21

2.73 WAR STORY (USA) ch. G, 2012 {8-c} DP = 7-6-15-0-0 (28) DI = 2.73 CD = 0.71
Mare Profile = 8-5-3-6-9 Speed = 13 Stamina = 15 Index = 0.89 Triads = 16-14-18

2.64 GOOD SAMARITAN (USA) b. C, 2014 {1-x} DP = 3-6-11-0-0 (20) DI = 2.64 CD = 0.60
Mare Profile = 9-5-7-6-8 Speed = 14 Stamina = 14 Index = 1.03 Triads = 21-18-21

2.60 WAR DECREE (USA) b. C, 2014 {8-c} DP = 3-5-10-0-0 (18) DI = 2.60 CD = 0.61
Mare Profile = 2-4-6-7-4 Speed = 6 Stamina = 11 Index = 0.67 Triads = 12-17-17

2.20 DIVERSIFY (USA) b. G, 2013 {A14} DP = 4-5-4-3-0 (16) DI = 2.20 CD = 0.63
Mare Profile = 9-4-2-9-3 Speed = 13 Stamina = 12 Index = 1.41 Triads = 15-15-14

I'm going to hold on to Diversify as the sole "average" bred guy instead of Keen Ice.
I love his lower index to compete along-side the stamina guys.
He does have a tendency to run 2 consecutive great races then drop down in beyer 3rd out and this will be
a third out race so its a shot in the dark. But his breeding is nice and he may just like that track
based on his 2.20 index and that .63 CD.

CHEF STAMINA:

Three of them this year. All great. One major standout. Easy read on these guys this year.
But what truly stands out, for me anyway, is the Gun Runner/Mubtaahij resemblance to the same positions of a past Breeders Classic.

The famous 2014 Breeders Cup Classic between Shared Belief/Toast of New York.
All 4 the highest stamina entries.
Gun Runner and Shared Belief both Candy Ride Boys head to head with UAE Derby Winners.

And I would guess for most, Gun Runner would be at the top of the list in this category with the highest shot at beating the speed.

This year, as in many years past, Speed will compete against Stamina and the bias will determine their fate in the order of finish.

2.00 GUNNEVERA (USA) ch. C, 2014 {16-h} DP = 7-8-10-2-3 (30) DI = 2.00 CD = 0.47
Mare Profile = 7-4-2-7-9 Speed = 11 Stamina = 16 Index = 0.74 Triads = 13-13-18

He’s wonderful. Talented. Special. Perfect chef profile. Second highest points total.
Out of his league? Maybe.
Worth a few dollars underneath? Absolutely.
Where he falls with his breeding and the uncertainty of the bias makes this guy a good longshot play for 3rd or 4th.

1.40 PAVEL (USA) gr/r. C, 2014 {23-b} DP = 2-2-13-1-0 (18) DI = 1.40 CD = 0.28
Mare Profile = 7-5-6-4-4 Speed = 12 Stamina = 8 Index = 1.39 Triads = 18-15-14

Another high stamina addition, but his stamina is a bit deceiving. His mares are very lopsided to speed.
He definitely gravitates to his mares and thrives on speedy tracks.
This is a very good horse but unless he changes allegiance to his chefs,
Pavel may not like that DelMar track at all. If the track is modified in anyway, he may be able to make some noise.
But that is unlikely. Now with 5 stamina guys competing in this race, Pavel may actually have to much speed to compete
against the other four and not enough speed to compete with the big guys at the top. Tough call.


1.25 GUN RUNNER (USA) ch. H, 2013 {17-b} DP = 1-2-14-1-0 (18) DI = 1.25 CD = 0.17
Mare Profile = 1-5-5-8-7 Speed = 6 Stamina = 15 Index = 0.44 Triads = 11-18-20

I really don’t see the need to even go on about anything here except to say…
Gun Runner is BEYOND A SERIOUS CONTENDER.

1.00 MUBTAAHIJ (IRE) b. H, 2012 {4-r} DP = 1-0-2-0-1 (4) DI = 1.00 CD = 0.00
Mare Profile = 6-6-4-10-4 Speed = 12 Stamina = 14 Index = 1.00 Triads = 16-20-18

Highest inherited Stamina on the field from his chefs.
Perfectly balanced between chef and mares as far as distance is concerned. A longshot play underneath – Yep
If that track is catering to stamina like the meet was, Mubtaahij is major player and should not be overlooked.
With the odds he will see against Bafferts hotshots, he is a strong money play from this important category.

0.76 CHURCHILL (IRE) b. C, 2014 {19-a} DP = 4-3-17-12-0 (36) DI = 0.76 CD = -0.03
Mare Profile = 2-7-5-8-8 Speed = 9 Stamina = 16 Index = 0.55 Triads = 14-20-21

Well, the addition of Churchill knocks Mubtaahij off of that Highest Stamina Inheritance pedestal.
That beautiful overseas high stamina inheritance that we have come to know in this spot.
His form has slipped in his last 4 races which against the speed in this race doesn't seem promising.
Too much stamina and not enough speed? Could be the case here.
But "very" high stamina may dominate this edition of the Breeders Cup races so Past Performances
must be checked and rechecked and then checked again.

Edited by user Thursday, October 26, 2017 6:06:41 AM(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

"It's what you can't see that matters most." - "Sunny Jim" Fitzsimmons
thanks 5 users thanked Lisa111 for this useful post.
Buckpasser on 10/21/2017(UTC), AnnaK on 10/22/2017(UTC), BigDawg on 10/23/2017(UTC), Sysonby on 10/24/2017(UTC), mcb05003 on 10/25/2017(UTC)
Lisa111  
#2 Posted : Monday, October 23, 2017 1:47:28 PM(UTC)
Lisa111

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So I was hoping to get a conversation going about this race.

I am assuming everyone basically has the same top 4, but who is everybody's one longshot guy and why?

I went back and forth between Gunnevera and Mubtaahij for a bit.

I'm going with Mubtaahij.

First reason is because of that surface. If it isn't speed favoring like the meet, then I think the stamina guys are going to take over.
He came in 4th in Meydan against Gun Runner and Arrogate and some of the best horses in the world. Not a bad showing at all.
He won his last race on a track that I would have assumed he would not like.
Baffert is going for it all. He wants to run that superfecta and Mubtaahij is his ace in the hole.

But I really do think he and Gun Runner will like that surface very much.
"It's what you can't see that matters most." - "Sunny Jim" Fitzsimmons
BigDawg  
#3 Posted : Monday, October 23, 2017 9:06:07 PM(UTC)
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Hey Lisa- I’ll say this... I’m not leaving Mubtaahij, Keen Ice, or Gunnevera off any of my Supers. All 3 are very likely to finish in the 3rd thru 6th slots.

That said, I’ll pick Gunnevera, for a few reasons...
1. He’s been working lights out
2. He seems to perform best when well rested... I think he was tired in the spring
3. DelMar has a shorter stretch than Saratoga or CD, which means I want a horse who can make a menacing move around the turn... He has done that more impressively than most horses in this field. It’s really something.
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Lisa111 on 10/24/2017(UTC)
Lisa111  
#4 Posted : Tuesday, October 24, 2017 7:04:10 AM(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: BigDawg Go to Quoted Post
Hey Lisa- I’ll say this... I’m not leaving Mubtaahij, Keen Ice, or Gunnevera off any of my Supers. All 3 are very likely to finish in the 3rd thru 6th slots.

That said, I’ll pick Gunnevera, for a few reasons...
1. He’s been working lights out
2. He seems to perform best when well rested... I think he was tired in the spring
3. DelMar has a shorter stretch than Saratoga or CD, which means I want a horse who can make a menacing move around the turn... He has done that more impressively than most horses in this field. It’s really something.


He really is doing great. Hard to choose. Really a great field this year.

Not sure if Pavel will be running here or the dirt mile. Another guy geared for stamina as well.
And hard to forget Win the Space possibly hitting closer up in order as well.

I am 95% sure that this year I will be taking a stand and choosing one guy to single on top because there is a valid argument for some of those higher odds to grab a piece down low.
And I am 95% sure that the horse I single is Gun Runner. Leaves more money to do more combinations underneath.
Arrogate is one tough horse but if Gun Runner is going to finally beat him, DelMar track is the best place for that to happen.

I'll probably use Gun Runner on top with all 4 of Bafferts guys underneath. Then maybe add Gunnevera and Win The Space with them in the 4th spot.
I really think out of those 3 longshots, Mubtaahij is going to do very well in this race.

I just hope that its a nice clean and safe trip for all.
"It's what you can't see that matters most." - "Sunny Jim" Fitzsimmons
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mcb05003 on 10/25/2017(UTC)
Sysonby  
#5 Posted : Tuesday, October 24, 2017 11:40:40 AM(UTC)
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Thanks for all your work on this, Lisa. This race is tough for me because I'm torn between what I want and what I think will happen. Unless things go awry, I expect Arrogate will take this with Gun Runner making the race as tough as he can. However, I'm not sure what effect the track itself will have and we've certainly seen it affect races over the past few months. If I'm looking elsewhere in this race, I too would go with Mubtaahij. I'm thinking this may be a surface he can take to, he seems to be in top fitness right now and he has certainly been competitive against very very good horses in the past. I agree that Gunnevera is at his best when relatively fresh but I'm not sure this is the group he should be running against even so.
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Lisa111 on 10/24/2017(UTC), AnnaK on 11/3/2017(UTC)
Lisa111  
#6 Posted : Tuesday, October 24, 2017 2:46:45 PM(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: Sysonby Go to Quoted Post
Thanks for all your work on this, Lisa. This race is tough for me because I'm torn between what I want and what I think will happen. Unless things go awry, I expect Arrogate will take this with Gun Runner making the race as tough as he can. However, I'm not sure what effect the track itself will have and we've certainly seen it affect races over the past few months. If I'm looking elsewhere in this race, I too would go with Mubtaahij. I'm thinking this may be a surface he can take to, he seems to be in top fitness right now and he has certainly been competitive against very very good horses in the past. I agree that Gunnevera is at his best when relatively fresh but I'm not sure this is the group he should be running against even so.



I know what you mean. I feel the same. What are you thoughts on Collected?

I can not get over that Pacific Classic performance. Wire to wire at 10f on that DelMar track.
I want to cross him off so bad, but there is no way that could happen.
I don't get how in the world these Baffert guys do what they do - over and over again.

He beat Arrogate wire to wire. Going 10F! At DelMar! I have to keep saying it to myself over and over again because that fact still hasn't set in!
"It's what you can't see that matters most." - "Sunny Jim" Fitzsimmons
Buckpasser  
#7 Posted : Tuesday, October 24, 2017 7:24:28 PM(UTC)
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I’m hoping for Gun Runner to win. I’ve followed this horse for his career and think he’s really coming into the race at top form. I’m just not a fan of Arrogate. In my opinion he is vastly overrated. I will be interested to see post positions here.

I like Collected here and Win the Space. West coast has done well too. My problem with Gunny is that I’ve backed him in several races and he just doesn’t get there. I just don’t seem in the mix at end.
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Lisa111 on 10/24/2017(UTC), mcb05003 on 10/25/2017(UTC)
Lisa111  
#8 Posted : Tuesday, October 24, 2017 10:31:03 PM(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: Buckpasser Go to Quoted Post
I’m hoping for Gun Runner to win. I’ve followed this horse for his career and think he’s really coming into the race at top form. I’m just not a fan of Arrogate. In my opinion he is vastly overrated. I will be interested to see post positions here.

I like Collected here and Win the Space. West coast has done well too. My problem with Gunny is that I’ve backed him in several races and he just doesn’t get there. I just don’t seem in the mix at end.


Yeah I'm with you with Gun Runner. He really is top notch right now. Arrogates performance in Dubai was one of the best performances I've ever seen. He is perfectly bred for the distance as well, but I do think it's Gun Runner's race as well. All 4 of Baffert's guys are serious players. So those 5, the top speed (Collected, Arrogate, West Coast) and the top stamina (Gun Runner and Mubtaahij) are key. It's just getting them configured properly in the superfecta without overspending. And I agree with Win the Space. He is deserving of a few bucks underneath. He has the speed and he has that loaded breeding that is hard to overlook at this distance.

I'm bypassing the rest of the field. The only thing I don't like about singling Gun Runner on top is the odds. If Mubtaahij or Win the Space doesn't connect here, the payout will be horrible.
And even throwing Arrogate up there with him will be about the same. A show bet on one of the others might actually pay more than hitting the super! I'm just gonna pray that somehow Mub gets behind Gun Runner and stays there!
"It's what you can't see that matters most." - "Sunny Jim" Fitzsimmons
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mcb05003  
#9 Posted : Wednesday, October 25, 2017 8:44:09 PM(UTC)
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As far as Gun Runner is concerned, I think it is a huge mistake to especially leave him out of the trifecta. I feel his pedigree can be matched only by two horses that intend to enter, Arrogate and Gunnevera.
I love Gunnevera in this race but probably will not bet him to win because of Arrogate, but can see him definitely coming in the money.
West Coast is the one I will make beat me simply because he has had the easier fields to go against and little speed to deter him. He will not get that this time, especially with Gun Runner there to put the pressure on him earlier then he wants.
And I am also not touching Keen Ice in this race.

Right now I’m thinking a super boxed ticket of Arrogate/Gunnevera/Gun Runner/Collected. I’m waiting for pps before making anything final.
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Lisa111 on 10/26/2017(UTC)
Lisa111  
#10 Posted : Thursday, October 26, 2017 5:49:16 AM(UTC)
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I changed my mind last night about one guy in the "average" category.
I'm gonna keep Diversify and I'm tossing the rest.

What I really like about this guy is he has had 10 races and 9 of them he came in 1st or second.
None of those tracks would be considered oil slick tracks either.
The one race where he did do bad and came in 7th was at Aquaduct where he was steadied,
but still managed to post a 99 beyer. His body of performances are top notch.
Will he like the surface? I have an idea that he may very well be able to capitalize on it.

So now I have 3 longshots that I must keep - Mubtaahij, Win the Space and Diversify.

Now I'm leaning Gun Runner with West Coast/Diversify/Arrogate/Mubtaahij as my main players.
I'll use Collected/Gunnevera/Win the Space sparingly underneath.
And most likely will need to toss one of them but I can't commit to that yet.

This is such a great field. Fantastic race assembled for 2017.

Edited by user Thursday, October 26, 2017 6:34:30 AM(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

"It's what you can't see that matters most." - "Sunny Jim" Fitzsimmons
BigDawg  
#11 Posted : Friday, October 27, 2017 11:12:21 PM(UTC)
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FWIW... you don’t get nearly the respect you deserve.. This is “pay for” type analysis.

I appreciate you.
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Lisa111 on 10/28/2017(UTC)
Lisa111  
#12 Posted : Saturday, October 28, 2017 10:56:14 AM(UTC)
Lisa111

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Originally Posted by: BigDawg Go to Quoted Post
FWIW... you don’t get nearly the respect you deserve.. This is “pay for” type analysis.

I appreciate you.


Wow, Thank you Brian. That was very nice and I appreciate it very much.
I am also very grateful for all of the insight I get from everyone in our small group here.

I actually do these little articles from time to time on these major races because it forces me to
look at each horse individually and carefully, where I may just by-pass otherwise.
It helps a great deal when its all laid out. Alot of times after the race is over I go back and say to myself,
I should have reread this and listened to myself. And other times, I say, What the heck was I thinking!!
Sometimes its an exercise in futility!

Anyway, I heard that there is a very strong possibility of major rain storms on Breeders Saturday.
If this track is sloppy for the Classic (or any dirt race for that matter) my initial thought is Speed Speed Speed -
However, with this track, the wetter the surface, the worse it could be for those speedy lead types.
Gauging the track and how it runs on Friday will be useless. Gauging the track leading up to the Classic on Saturday will
be more important than ever.

I am putting all my picks for this race on hold until about 5pm on Saturday.
But there is one longshot that is a must use for me now, rain or shine - Win The Space.
"It's what you can't see that matters most." - "Sunny Jim" Fitzsimmons
thanks 1 user thanked Lisa111 for this useful post.
Buckpasser on 11/1/2017(UTC)
SSilence86  
#13 Posted : Saturday, October 28, 2017 11:31:23 AM(UTC)
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Hey Lisa! Thanks as always for your work.

I have to say I haven't been into it as much as I usually am.
I'm trying to start divorce proceedings, which has taken a lot of my attention the last couple of months.

I have barely watched racing lately.
I've made time for my boy Storm, and of course the wonder down under Winx, but not much else.

I am watching The Works on TVG right now. I also plan to read your wonderful write ups to make some picks.
thanks 2 users thanked SSilence86 for this useful post.
Lisa111 on 10/29/2017(UTC), Buckpasser on 11/1/2017(UTC)
Lisa111  
#14 Posted : Sunday, October 29, 2017 8:05:57 AM(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: SSilence86 Go to Quoted Post
Hey Lisa! Thanks as always for your work.

I have to say I haven't been into it as much as I usually am.
I'm trying to start divorce proceedings, which has taken a lot of my attention the last couple of months.

I have barely watched racing lately.
I've made time for my boy Storm, and of course the wonder down under Winx, but not much else.

I am watching The Works on TVG right now. I also plan to read your wonderful write ups to make some picks.


Ugg. I hope all things work out well for you. This is a good distraction for you so forget all the bad stuff and dive into
your horse racing. This is the second best week of the year!

Since there is a strong possibility of thunderstorms on Saturday coupled with 7ft high tide that day,
my article might just need to be in the garbage can at this point. Everything I wrote centered around a dry
normal track. If it is indeed a sloppy track, I do believe Win the Space and Diversify will have a much stronger chance
and that Collected will not be too happy.

I'm not picking anything at this point until Saturday afternoon.
"It's what you can't see that matters most." - "Sunny Jim" Fitzsimmons
Sysonby  
#15 Posted : Sunday, October 29, 2017 1:27:30 PM(UTC)
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It looks like Diversify is out of the Classic.
Lisa111  
#16 Posted : Sunday, October 29, 2017 2:09:09 PM(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: Sysonby Go to Quoted Post
It looks like Diversify is out of the Classic.


But of course. Just last night, he passed Mubtaahij as my number one longshot! Of course he's out.
"It's what you can't see that matters most." - "Sunny Jim" Fitzsimmons
SSilence86  
#17 Posted : Sunday, October 29, 2017 2:25:04 PM(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: Lisa111 Go to Quoted Post
But of course. Just last night, he passed Mubtaahij as my number one longshot! Of course he's out.


The pace scenario changed with his defection.
Buckpasser  
#18 Posted : Wednesday, November 01, 2017 1:54:09 PM(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: SSilence86 Go to Quoted Post
Hey Lisa! Thanks as always for your work.

I have to say I haven't been into it as much as I usually am.
I'm trying to start divorce proceedings, which has taken a lot of my attention the last couple of months.

I have barely watched racing lately.
I've made time for my boy Storm, and of course the wonder down under Winx, but not much else.

I am watching The Works on TVG right now. I also plan to read your wonderful write ups to make some picks.


Sorry to hear about this SS. Hope everything works out for you
SSilence86  
#19 Posted : Thursday, November 02, 2017 7:49:04 AM(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: Buckpasser Go to Quoted Post
Sorry to hear about this SS. Hope everything works out for you



Thanks Lisa & Buck.

I think it comes down to needing a lawyer & I can't afford one.
I just want it done and over so I can move on. And move away.

As for the races, I glanced briefly over them and like you Lisa, I want to see how the weather is and how the tracks holding up.
But I can tell you this much, I will be rooting hard for my boy Storm during his swan song in the Turf Mile.
Lisa111  
#20 Posted : Thursday, November 02, 2017 4:15:47 PM(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: SSilence86 Go to Quoted Post
Thanks Lisa & Buck.

I think it comes down to needing a lawyer & I can't afford one.
I just want it done and over so I can move on. And move away.

As for the races, I glanced briefly over them and like you Lisa, I want to see how the weather is and how the tracks holding up.
But I can tell you this much, I will be rooting hard for my boy Storm during his swan song in the Turf Mile.



Then hit REALLY REALLY big this weekend and then get the best lawyer out there!!

I have completely thrown everything I thought I was going to do in this race in the trash.
Based on how that track played yesterday and a few other things -
I am singling the big Guy Arrogate to win this race.
Will use Gun Runner - Churchill - West Coast - Mubtaahij and a little bit of Collected underneath.

I think I am finally closing the program on this race.

Even though my heart truly wants Gun Runner to win for a all sorts of reasons, I still would like to see
Arrogate go out a Champion. He had such an incredible career, with one more to go.
I think he has everything he needs to win this race easily.

Good Luck everybody.
"It's what you can't see that matters most." - "Sunny Jim" Fitzsimmons
thanks 1 user thanked Lisa111 for this useful post.
Buckpasser on 11/3/2017(UTC)
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