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Lisa111  
#1 Posted : Friday, November 24, 2017 12:09:32 PM(UTC)
Lisa111

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The following have half decent numbers for a shot at winning the Kentucky Derby from the listed 23 from Pool One. (Twinspires)
I am not extremely thrilled, they are still not 100% perfect like Dia De Pago's numbers, but they are workable.
These 6 have varied reasons for winning that race based on their inheritance;
Including bias, sloppy track, speed breakdown, etc along with the inheritance.
Unfortunately Dia De Pago is not listed at Twinspires for Pool One, as his numbers far exceed the rest so far.

1. Dak Attack -
DP = 2-5-7-0-0 (14) DI = 3.00 CD = 0.64
Conduit Mare Profile = 7-5-5-12-3 Speed = 12 Stamina = 15 Index = 1.04 Triads = 17-22-20
The Mares numbers are absolutely perfect. That is the epitome of Mare inheritance for the Derby.
Higher inheritance of stamina from Mares when Chefs are 3.00 and above. Over 1.00 index from the Mares ensures high speed.
Seriously high Triads across all three slots. He has the best numbers from Pool One.
The chefs index is a little low, meaning he will be on the low end of the scale for speed inheritance from his chefs but
his mares numbers counteract it very much. These numbers also win the Belmont Stakes. He has the best shot across the board.

2. Mask -
DP = 5-10-10-1-0 (26) DI = 3.33 CD = 0.73
Conduit Mare Profile = 7-7-3-6-6 Speed = 14 Stamina = 12 Index = 1.14 Triads = 17-16-15
His numbers are very close to his half brothers Tapwrit and Creator, however, Mask inherited MORE SPEED
than both of them from his chefs. This bodes very well for a shot in Kentucky. His chefs numbers are much more compatible
for the 10f at Churchill and his mare numbers are similar for a possible shot at Belmont. His numbers will also be in his favor
if it happens to rain that day.

3. Engage -
DP = 2-2-4-0-0 (8) DI = 3.00 CD = 0.75
Conduit Mare Profile = 5-9-6-9-2 Speed = 14 Stamina = 11 Index = 1.32 Triads = 20-24-17
The main reason for bringing attention to this colt is that he is very similar to his half brother Practical Joke.
I have reservations about the extra 1/8th for the Derby but he did inherit a tad more stamina inheritance
from the bottom of his chart than Practical Joke. Possible to make it. Triads are spectacular just like Practical Joke
but he was given an extra little shot of stamina. Not sure if its enough though to win it.

4. Tiz Mischief -
DP = 1-0-1-0-0 (2) DI = 3.00 CD = 1.00
Conduit Mare Profile = 5-6-6-10-2 Speed = 11 Stamina = 12 Index = 1.10 Triads = 17-22-18
I put this guy here because he is a half brother to Engage and part of that "Practical Joke" dilemma.
Same type, but the profile configuration leans him closer to being a speedy type who may struggle past 9.5f.
He is definitely the type who can secure a gate, just like Engage, and offers, at the very least, a shot at having a bet on
a live contender for the Derby. Just like Practical Joke, he may see his way to getting the 10f, but could possibly be gearing down
at the final turn.


5. Mendelssohn -
DP = 5-0-8-1-0 (14) DI = 1.80 CD = 0.64
Conduit Mare Profile = 7-6-4-8-5 Speed = 13 Stamina = 13 Index = 1.09 Triads = 17-18-17
This guy has the stamina numbers if the speed falls apart for the Derby. What stands out is the mares inheritance
and why he has the ability to capitalize if that speed goes crazy on the lead. He does not have the advantage for the Derby,
however he has the right set up for a stamina horse over many of the others. The high index from the Mares is very good and
nicely balanced. The 17 in the first slot of the triads gives him the advantage over other stamina horses who may be on the field that day.
I would venture to say that he has no shot though if it rains.

6. Gotta Go -
DP = 3-5-2-0-0 (10) DI = 9.00 CD = 1.10
Conduit Mare Profile = 1-7-8-9-5 Speed = 8 Stamina = 14 Index = 0.63 Triads = 16-24-22
This guy has a little something over the rest of Pool One. Not sure if its enough for 10f but if he could
lean himself and favor his Mares, he has a shot. He inherited a great deal of speed from his chefs, although with
his low points total, he does not have alot of chefs in his chart, which means he has a greater chance of leaning to his mares.
He must or he has no shot. His Mares numbers are good and if they do not get completely watered down from his chefs
he might be a good longshot bet for this pool. He has a fairly good set up if the track turns up sloppy for 2018 Derby.
This is the main reason for pointing him out.

Glaringly missing from this list is Bolt D'Oro. The favorite from Pool One. Currently listed at 6-1 as of this minute,
I do not feel his inheritance and potential is worth a 6-1 wager. He may be top of the heap right now and may even capture
Champion Two Year old - but if this guy finds himself with a gate for the Derby, well, his numbers are nowhere near the likes of
Classic Empire, Nyquist, Pharoah or Shared Belief. They are much closer to Shanghai Bobby, Hansen and Uncle Mo.
And you see where those guys ended.


Bolt D'Oro -
7-11-12-2-0 (32) DI = 3.00 CD = 0.72
Conduit Mare Profile = 11-2-2-4-10 Speed = 13 Stamina = 14 Index = 1.00 Triads = 15-8-16
His chefs numbers are his saving grace. High Points, Nice Intermediate and Classic numbers.
The Mares numbers are absolutely horrendous for the Derby. The Mares profile is split in two, nothing in the center.
The triads have zero advantage in the Kentucky Derby. Bet him along the way, but his inheritance for the Derby itself,
is, well, lacking for use of a better word. Hype is not worth the 6-1 odds.

Edited by user Friday, November 24, 2017 12:16:21 PM(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

"It's what you can't see that matters most." - "Sunny Jim" Fitzsimmons
thanks 3 users thanked Lisa111 for this useful post.
Buckpasser on 11/25/2017(UTC), BigDawg on 11/28/2017(UTC), mcb05003 on 11/30/2017(UTC)
Sysonby  
#2 Posted : Friday, November 24, 2017 6:57:42 PM(UTC)
Sysonby

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Thanks for this, Lisa. As always, this gives a lot to think about. I'm assuming there will be a lot of additions to this cast of characters with the new year as well, and some winnowing of the field unfortunately with injuries.
thanks 1 user thanked Sysonby for this useful post.
Lisa111 on 11/25/2017(UTC)
Lisa111  
#3 Posted : Saturday, November 25, 2017 9:11:46 AM(UTC)
Lisa111

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Originally Posted by: Sysonby Go to Quoted Post
Thanks for this, Lisa. As always, this gives a lot to think about. I'm assuming there will be a lot of additions to this cast of characters with the new year as well, and some winnowing of the field unfortunately with injuries.


For Pool One, there are well over 300 listed entries but for some of us who can't make the trip to Vegas to bet we have to settle
for the "pre-picked" list of 23 and bet this weekend at Twinspires.
At this point I did get through the numbers of about 200 of them.
Several of them really stood out but unfortunately they did not make that chosen list at Twinspires.

These included:

Dia De Pago. Perfect high Speed Numbers.
Fort Wise Treaty. He is the son of Fort Larned. Very good dosage setup for Derby.
Archaggelos. High Stamina
Afleet Ascent. Fantastic Mares numbers.

And about 10 others. Unfortunately, they could only be bet as "All other three year olds" and that is only at 3-1 and not worth it.
The ones I listed above had the best numbers out of the Twinspires chosen list.
To be honest, only two from the above had made my list from the entire Wynn Las Vegas group. Dak Attack and Mendelssohn.
I was reaching as best as I could for what could actually be bet on this weekend!

Several of the 23 offered at Twinspires appear to have Belmont numbers as opposed to Derby numbers including :
Avery Island - Copper Bullet - Solomini - Sporting Chance - Untamed Domain

Pool One is definitely a shot in the dark. Will continue along for Pools 2 and 3 and hope for the best.

Edited by user Saturday, November 25, 2017 9:22:52 AM(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

"It's what you can't see that matters most." - "Sunny Jim" Fitzsimmons
thanks 2 users thanked Lisa111 for this useful post.
BigDawg on 11/28/2017(UTC), mcb05003 on 11/30/2017(UTC)
AnnaK  
#4 Posted : Monday, November 27, 2017 8:40:21 PM(UTC)
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Thanks Lisa. Hope Thanksgiving is good for all.
thanks 1 user thanked AnnaK for this useful post.
Lisa111 on 11/28/2017(UTC)
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